Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought Risk Under Climate Change Based on the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk Model

Abstract Drought is projected to become more frequent and increasingly severe under climate change in many agriculturally important areas. However, few studies have assessed mapped the future global crop drought risk—defined as occurrence probability likelihood of yield losses from drought—at high resolution. With support GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk model, we propose an analytical framework quantify map global-scale maize risk at a 0.5° In this framework, model can be calibrated validated using datasets situ observations (for example, statistics, caused by drought) literature. Water stress then simulated. To evaluate applicability assessment 1.5 °C warming was conducted. At warming, regionally variable (high midlatitudes low tropics subtropics), with only minor negative (? 0.93%) impact on yield. The results are consistent previous impacts major agricultural countries around world. Therefore, act practical tool for global-scale, future-oriented assessment, provide theoretical adaptive planning strategies drought.